Only 23 teams, 11 in the NFC and 12 in the AFC, remain alive for the playoffs after 14 weeks of the NFL season.
Of the nine teams on the outside looking in, three of them pretty much have as their only hope, somehow rallying to win their division.
Carolina is tied with Tampa Bay, but currently loses the tie-breaker in the NFC. In the AFC, both Baltimore and Cincinnati, at 6-7, have little hope at a wildcard berth.
But both teams trail Pittsburgh by just a game.
Ironically, the team currently in the cat-bird seat in the AFC North if it came down to a tie-breaker would be the 4-9 Bengals.
These next four weeks are going to be wild.
The Division Leaders
- #1 NFC: Los Angeles Rams (10-3)
- #2 NFC: Green Bay (9-3-1)
- #3 NFC: Philadelphia (8-5)
- #4 NFC: Tampa Bay (7-6)
- #1 AFC: Denver (11-2)
- #2 AFC: New England (11-2)
- #3 AFC: Jacksonville (9-4)
- #4 AFC: Pittsburgh (7-6)
The Rams are looking like solid picks for the top seed and the playoff bye week. Los Angeles has a slightly easier schedule than Green Bay.
The Eagles have the easier slate of the top three, but they face Buffalo and the Eagles are not looking so good lately.
Tampa Bay could catch Philadelphia for that third seed too.
In the AFC, Denver and New England are in a dogfight.
Denver currently has the tie-breaker. But the Broncos also have the tougher four-game schedule ahead.
Jacksonville plays at Denver on the 21st and their remaining three games are very winnable.
If the Patriots and Broncos slip up, Jacksonville could sneak in and steal that top seed.
The Current Wild Cards
- #5 NFC: Seattle (10-3)
- #6 NFC: San Francisco (9-4)
- #7 NFC: Chicago (9-4)
- #5 AFC: Los Angeles Chargers (9-4)
- #6: AFC: Buffalo (9-4)
- #7 AFC: Houston (8-5)
On The Outside, Looking In
Dallas: The Cowboys are one of four teams outside the NFC’s seven playoff seeds. Unless they can catch the Eagles for the NFC East title, they would have to rely on some very slim playoff hopes.
If the Eagles win the division, Dallas would have to run the table and finish 10-6-1.
They would then need one of the following teams, the 49ers, Bears, or Packers, to go 1-3 or worse.
They could only afford the Lions winning two of their last four. The Panthers could go 3-1 and the Cowboys would still edge them by a half-game.
This is why Dallas’ current odds of making the playoffs stand at 6%.
Detroit: At 8-5, the Lions are now sitting in eighth. That puts them a game behind the 49ers (6th) and Bears (7th) in the wildcard hunt.
But the Lions are also very much in the hunt for the NFC North title too.
They trail Green Bay by 1.5 games.
Carolina: The Panthers are a half-game ahead of Dallas, and two games out of the 7th seed at 7-6. However, they are tied with Tampa Bay for the NFC South.
And the two teams play each other twice in the final three weeks.
That could ultimately help Dallas a lot.
Minnesota: The Vikings need to win out and get an exact combination of wins and losses so unbelievable that I would imagine the odds are at one trillion to one – against.
Indianapolis: Over in the AFC, the Colts are one of five teams trying to get back into the top seven. At 8–5, their chances should be good.
But they just lost Daniel Jones, probably for the year.
They used to be the top seed. Now, they’re probably not making it in.
Baltimore: The Ravens fell to 6-7 and trail the seventh-seeded Texans by two games.
A wildcard berth seems unlikely. But they only trail the Steelers by a game.
Their season will likely come down to a season finale on the road against Pittsburg.
Kansas City: The Chiefs look like a beaten team. After Sunday night’s loss to Houston, the Chiefs are at 6-7.
They could win out, two of their remaining games are against the Titans and the Raiders.
Even if they did, though, at 10-7 they’d need a lot of help.
Miami: The 6–7 Dolphins have three teams fighting for their own playoff hopes remaining to play.
Like the Chiefs, they need to run the table, and they hope for all the breaks to fall their way.
Cincinnati: Believe it or not, the 4-9 Bengals still have a path to the playoffs. They need to go 4-0 and finish at 8-9.
They then need the Steelers and Ravens to finish no better than 8-9 with Baltimore beating the Steelers in Week 18.
No matter how they all get to 8-9, provided the Ravens beat Pittsburgh, if this happens, the Bengals win the AFC North and get into the playoffs.
As they cannot get in as a wildcard now, this is the only path to the playoffs for Cincinnati.
We’re Getting Ready To Draft
The final draft order remains to be set, but these nine NFL teams are already looking ahead to next April’s draft and the free agency period in 2026.
- New York Giants (2-11)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)
- Tennessee Titans (2-11)
- Cleveland Browns (3-10)
- New York Jets (3-10)
- New Orleans Saints (3-10)
- Arizona Cardinals (3-10)
- Washington Commanders (3-10)
- Atlanta Falcons (4-9)
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